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围堵中国芯片的进展如何[七律]
发布于2023-01-18 23:07 点击:121 评论:0 作者:湯安

(抱歉,英文内容无法改回中文,这个bug似乎是修改过程中谷歌系统出错导致的)

Previously, it was generally analyzed that Biden’s publicly proposed financial and technological containment to prevent China’s science, technology and economic development will subdue a large number of Chinese industries, leading to long-term suppression of China’s economic, technological and social development.


I didn’t take this very seriously in the article "Troubleshooting Experts". The reason is not because all walks of life in China are as self-improving as Huawei. Interest classes are as numerous as hawks and dogs. Otherwise, China's unique behavior of hindering public intellectuals from dividing up national interests will not happen. Public intellectuals regard it as "killing people and killing parents".


The basis for this view is from the perspective of philosophy and political economy. Biden’s intensification of Trump’s sanctions and containment of China’s development policy can only be a paradoxical war between Don Quixote and windmills.


Of course, there are many people who are sanctioned by the United States either to die or to admit defeat. This is from the specific situation of China and the United States.


过颜处士墓 


唐  白居易


向坟道径没荒榛,满室诗书积闇尘。

长夜肯教黄壤晓,悲风不许白杨春。

箪瓢颜子生仍促,布被黔娄死更贫。

未会悠悠上天意,惜将富寿与何人。


YanChushi Tomb



Tang Bai Juyi



There is no barren hazel on the path to the grave, and the room is full of poems and books to accumulate dark dust.

Changye is willing to teach Huang Yangxiao, but the sad wind does not allow Bai Yangchun.

Tan Piao Yan Zi was still in a hurry, but Bu was even poorer after Qian Lou died.

I haven't met God's will leisurely, but I regret to give my wealth and life to anyone.



Let me talk about the objective laws first. Finance and technology have their own objective development laws. Needless to say, there are still many insightful people with strong bones in China. Setbacks can survive thousands of years. On the level of disaster, Don Quixote is obviously incomparable.


However, the United States does not seek development and only engages in sanctions and containment, which is the primary factor for the failure of sanctions. If the United States does not advance, it will retreat, and it will be unsustainable. Biden's visceral meat grinder seven-injury punch method that harms others and himself is to frighten his opponents by harming himself. How can you stick to the windmill's style of play until the end? Judging from the fact that Russia, Saudi Arabia and BRICS countries have asked their currencies to participate in RMB trade to avoid the US dollar, the United States has lived to the point where it needs to prove that it is harmless. friends of the United States” choice. These are certainly not the results that the United States wants.


再说主观律规,美国割韭菜套路单一,不出养肥各国经济之后通过按区域轮流发动热点战争驱赶美元回流冲击韭菜国家的优质企业进行贱价收割,所以就成了每个地区十年一收割的“主观规律”(规律都是客观的,这里开个用词玩笑,正确用词是“主观律规,主观自我符合规律的能力”)。这种韭菜的割法要求没有人抢收美国的韭菜,全世界配合着美国来割,以前日本欧洲持有大量美元但是谁敢从美国搞的割韭菜里面抢收韭菜谁就非死即残,美国驻军监听欧洲日本不是摆设,干的就是这个。直到中国快速崛起,那种快到美国安排驻军监控都来不及的快速,结果美国只能撕破脸制裁围堵中国,中国阻止美元割韭菜的同时也就大摇大摆地用更优惠友好合作共建的方式划拉走美元辛辛苦苦养肥十年的韭菜。这就要了亲命。


孙子兵法曰:昔之善战者,先为不可胜,9以待敌之可胜。 不可胜在己,可胜在敌。 故善战者,能为不可胜,不能使敌之必可胜。 故曰:胜可知,而不可为。 (兵法说:以前善于作战者,总是先创造自己不被战胜的条件,然后等待可以战胜敌人的机会。 使自己不被战胜,其主动权掌握在自己手中; 敌人能否被战胜,在于敌人是否给我们以可乘之机)。美国只知道找借口打仗,不知道制造天时地利人和的胜利条件,欺负小国还行,碰上太极八卦连环掌,兵法它祖宗的中国,美国无以名状,不是王八拳就是七伤拳。比尔盖茨所预言的“越是搞芯片制裁中国中国芯片产业发展越迅猛”一步一步成为现实。


据彭博社报道,荷兰光刻机巨头阿斯麦公司首席执行官温宁克当地时间25日在荷兰维尔德霍芬的公司总部接受采访时表示,美国主导的针对中国的半导体出口管制措施,最终会促使中国在高端芯片制造设备领域成功研发出自己的技术。


彭博社报道称,温宁克表示,中国的半导体公司“必须参与全球竞争”,所以他们才想购买非中国制造的设备,“如果无法得到这些机器,他们就会自己研发。这需要时间,但最终他们会实现目标”。温宁克还表示,“中国的‘物理定律’和这里的一样,你越给他们施加压力,他们越有可能加倍努力”,以制造能够与阿斯麦匹敌的光刻设备。


因此,华为挺过芯片制裁之际,美国依靠的高科技芯片巨头和可以不受限制使用最先进芯片的苹果公司和高通等一众美国重点扶持科技标兵却挺不住了。个个都在裁员减产,昔日中国每产出一台手机,不论华为小米还是苹果手机,躺着抽取手机专利的高通就要从售价里面拿走约二百美元的利润。丢掉幻想之后,中国芯片科技以之前不可想象的速度发展起来,高通和美企却因为制裁脱钩从此拿不到中国技术产品的利润。


这就是为什么中国芯片业虽然一开始备受冲击章法混乱,中兴联想既得利益管理层恨不得踩着全中国的脑袋投降美国。鼓吹极限打击的川普不管昂首的华为还是跪翔的中兴都连打带羞辱,拜登还来了个变本加厉,连经营内容和账目都必须确保美国监控,中国被迫走上开山架桥的自主路线这条科技革命大道,就像航天航空和汽车业以走的自主研发电动汽车路线一样,制裁确实让喜欢偷懒山寨的中国公司断了念想,加速走入美国都没有的自主研发道路。不出三年美国的极限围堵就围了个寂寞孤立,把整个世界拱手让给中国。余茂春这个猪队友没有读懂《围城》就上岗,秦刚不妨问问布林肯这么大的用人纰漏是谁弄出来的。


至于目前欧美前景,上文题专家翻车一诗时大致预测了一下:“缪政岐途杨柳梦,G 7 鼎沸罢工鸣”。那时预言得准确与否,查查当前欧美媒体此起彼伏的罢工报道就知道了。


最有趣的是荷兰阿斯麦光刻机巨头,两年前为了拒绝运出中国定制的光刻机,荷兰人又是自己纵火又是赔偿违约地玩了不止一次,为了配合美国围堵中国把自己从科技巨头围困成了缺乏营养的三鹿大头娃娃,再围堵中国就是饿死自己,于是荷兰政府出面硬怼美国,宣布荷兰可以出口中国光刻机,而且加快速度运送不属于最先进级别的DUV光刻机。理由是阿斯麦光刻机不止有美国技术,全球许多国家和企业都参与阿斯麦供应链。对此美国选择点头默许阿斯麦,毕竟如果阿斯麦垮了没了下一个国际芯片巨头就会是中国企业,到时候谁被围堵制裁拜登掰手指头算还是掰得过来的。


小结一下围堵芯片进展?


中国自主创新进展得不错,14纳米以上破0破0的芯片美国已经放弃围堵。EUV中国不能跟荷兰竞争是事实,全面开拓其它技术尤其是EDA加光子芯片路线也是事实,连l平ll婆婆L年内中国甚至可望建立效能是硅基芯片一千倍以上的光子芯片产业链。而中国一旦放弃EUV光刻机,阿斯麦就得守着金山要饭。高盛三星台积电苹果谷歌脸书霉塌等一系列相关站队收获围堵中国红利的企业前景比阿斯麦还不妙,至少越来越不明。而中国芯片马上就有华为12纳米的突破和量产,这说明美国的围堵促进而非阻止了中国芯片业的发展。


一月十六日达沃斯论坛上基辛格视频发言要求中美必须合作解释了为什么美国越围堵脱钩中国就越急着强调中美必须合作,布林肯和耶伦急着跑中国商谈保持合作,拼命搞台独的黑人国防部长拼命拨打中国一听是他就厌烦到拒接的电话。


也聊两句出谋划策围堵中国的英国。


自称经济学家的英国首相苏纳克上任至今经济政策一直难产,倒是应对罢工谈判技能练得渐入佳境,迅速成长为小城做题家。刚刚靠同意涨护士工资的复工条件按下了全英护士大罢工的葫芦,立马又浮起一堆医药、教育、工业、交通运输和铁路的罢工葫芦。全英最高谈判专家苏纳克也不想一想,你把英国物价都涨成蘑菇了,英伦物价上涨不止导致护士行业的生存危机,脚痛医脚只给罢工护士涨工资,这不是在鼓励全民学习罢工护士好榜样么?


估计苏纳克也发觉这个问题了,只是转而着迷上了以堵代疏的翻车思维,采取更愚蠢的提油救火做法,调动军警威胁镇压罢工。最有趣的是英国一贯教唆香港和其他国家反政府游行者占领政府机关、司法、议会大厦这些中枢神经机构,并把这种占领称作民主人权的体现,面对全英上千万人的大罢工苏纳克最先提出修改的法律却是要求议会通过进入政府机构进行抗议属于犯罪,允许警察立即逮捕。推出这个修正案理由是要维护公众的安宁生活,坐在政府机构里的无能官员让公众没钱过日子是不是首先触犯了这个修正案?而且,这样不得追究所有从香港跑到英国的三等护照持有者多年破坏香港市民安宁生活的罪行?以及英国政府的教唆犯罪?


Sunak’s extreme squeeze strategy regardless of the occasion and opponent is not even as clever as the US’s milk teaser strategy. The US can at least allow the drug shooting case, abortion rights, feminism, and gender diversity to occupy the media to dilute the strike issue. The UK’s The buzzwords on the front page were Sunak and strike. After that, it is difficult not to guess the timing of Sunak's early resignation when he asked Sunak.


The price of eggs in the United States has dropped from a low of 59 cents a dozen two years ago to five dollars a dozen today. Maybe the strike landscape is just over the mountain.


Alas, things keep going on in the village. What burns Biden's mind the most is how the United States will contain and decouple China, a cause that the two parties have worked hard together, to the point where the United States has nowhere to go without asking China to cooperate.




Guiyuanpu



Southern Song Dynasty Yang Wanli


Wanshan does not allow a stream to run, blocking the sound of the stream day and night.

At the foot of Qiantou Mountain, the majestic stream flows out of Qiancun.



The result of using the limit to contain China is still the result. Isn't the rest just cooperation and friendship?


Many media believe that it is not true, that literary fighting can not be fought by force. NATO, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India restrict the entry of Chinese tourists. They really don’t care about Chinese tourists contracting the virus. Actively choosing sides to prepare for a war against China is the only explanation. The headline of the CCTV news on January 19 was: "Xi Jinping inspects and sends New Year greetings to all the commanders and fighters of the People's Liberation Army, the armed police, the officers, the soldiers, the civilians, the militia and the reservists." People's Daily commentator Niu Tanqin who likes to play the piano just posted an article saying, "We have experienced the epidemic for three years, and we will prepare for the war for three years." This time, it may be really good.


Poetry.




Another two years of silence and prosperity, the overlord is happy and the spring is cold

Unaware of the snowy Yongxi night, the Yiling is peaceful and the wind is auspicious and misty

Romantic straight beard thunderbolt Fu, amorous feelings cultivate small waves

The sound of cicadas does not allow the southeast to be quiet, and the beautiful scenery of the west gate is turned over




The beautiful scenery refers to the beautiful scenery where Pelosi's exports to China were blocked and domestic sales were turned crazy.



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